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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: How likely is this? |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:01 am
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Replies: 26
Views: 29695
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| Dierk, in that case: Odds of each morale check: 1/(25+1) = 3.8% Odds of each rout: 3.8% * 1/3 = 1.3% Odds that both units would rout: 1.3% squared = .02% 2 out of 10,000. Pretty low probability. If you try to factor in the odds that both of the first two hits would result in a single casualty, the p... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: How likely is this? |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:58 am
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Replies: 26
Views: 29695
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| <blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Only these two units were hit (in successive turns). Both were "C" quality, both took only that one "1" hit, and both routed.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font i... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: How likely is this? |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:53 am
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Replies: 26
Views: 29695
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| <blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Only these two units were hit (in successive turns). Both were "C" quality, both took only that one "1" hit, and both routed.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font i... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: How likely is this? |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:13 am
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Replies: 26
Views: 29695
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| Dierk, you <i>knew</i> I'd be the one to attempt to answer literally. The odds of each unit having to make a morale check one a single-casualty hit were just under 4%. Need more information to know the odds of a rout, but assuming they were each "C" units, not stacked with leaders, not disrupted, no... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: How likely is this? |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:07 am
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Replies: 26
Views: 29695
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| Impossible to calculate, without knowing how many other times your units took casualties without routing, how many they took, the quality of the units, etc. It's a very complex bit of math. There was a slightly less than 4% chance that each of those units would have to make a morale check following ... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: Outstanding Service Medals |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sat May 26, 2007 2:40 am
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Replies: 21
Views: 19501
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Well earned, Bob and Ed! Your service is much appreciated.
Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: Promotion to General |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:54 am
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Replies: 6
Views: 6482
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Thank you, gentlemen. Just goes to show what a bunch of longevity and a little service can do.
Lt. Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: West Point Change of Command |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:17 pm
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Replies: 14
Views: 14190
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| My hat is off to Gen. Ross, who is the only West Point Commandant I can remember. He's provided tremendous service to the Club, and I am deeply honored to be selected to succeed him. I hope I can live up to his example. Thanks to all my friends in the Club for their kind words. This next round is on... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: RE: Jon Thayer, MG ANV, III Corps = sick tent |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 2:32 pm
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Replies: 6
Views: 6196
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Best wishes for a quick recovery, Jon, from the AoS gang on the other side of the field.
Lt. Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: General John Gordon's Birthday |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:23 pm
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Replies: 5
Views: 6661
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One thing Gordon did not have in common with Woodson - Gordon was a leader of the Georgia Ku Klux Klan.
An able general certainly, but not a man I'd honor as a statesman.
Lt. Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: Newest Stars in the Union Galaxy |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 10:16 am
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Replies: 13
Views: 13149
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Congratulations to all, and especially to Generals Bangma and Roubaud. It's nice to see that our AoS alums are continuing to rise in the world.
Lt. Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: Presenting 1st Lt. Gary Christian |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 10:12 am
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Replies: 10
Views: 9336
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| The West Point training staff do seem to be a little busier than we've been previously - I just picked up another cadet. Do you suppose HPS might have broken through to a slightly broader market? Or are a higher percentage finding out about, and hooking up with, the ACWGC? Nick, is business picking ... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: Vicksburg Glitch?? |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 5:34 am
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Replies: 7
Views: 6373
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| Are you certain that they were the same units? It's possible that in moving you gained line of sight on the new hex (82,18) and lost line of sight on the old one (84,19), and that both hexes had similar unit mixes in them. You've probably already thought of that and checked on it, but just in case, ... |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: Major General Mike Dean, front and center! |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 10:34 am
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Replies: 8
Views: 8913
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Thanks, Mike, for your service and friendship, and for hanging in longer than you really wanted to when needed. Glad to have you continue as a gaming partner.
Lt. Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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Forum: Mason Dixon Tavern Topic: HPS Arty question |
| mperrenod |
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:28 am
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Replies: 1
Views: 2973
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Col. Lytwak -
Artillery disrupts if it <i>unlimbers</i> at night. There is no disruption in limbering.
Lt. Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah |
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