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How likely is this?
http://www.wargame.ch/board/acwgc/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=10914		 Page 2 of 2
Author:  mperrenod [ Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:01 am ]
Post subject: 
Dierk, in that case:

Odds of each morale check: 1/(25+1) = 3.8%
Odds of each rout: 3.8% * 1/3 = 1.3%
Odds that both units would rout: 1.3% squared = .02%

2 out of 10,000. Pretty low probability. If you try to factor in the odds that both of the first two hits would result in a single casualty, the probability would be exceedingly low, but so many variables are involved, I don't think it worth the effort.

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah
Author:  Pat Thompson [ Sun Jun 03, 2007 11:35 am ]
Post subject: 
I think your computer is pissed at you...

Maybe it's time for a de-frag...



Lt. Thompson
4/3/VIII AoS
Author:  bobbreen [ Sun Jun 03, 2007 12:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think you will also find, if the unit took fire on the flank, even if there was no casualty, the odds get close to that 3.8% number -- which is not quite as unlucky as being on the wrong end of a 1.3% probability, but still pretty uncommon.

Lt Gen Bob Breen
Commanding 5th Bde, 1st Div, XIX Corps, AoS
"Defenders of the Right"
Author:  D.S. Walter [ Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:32 am ]
Post subject: 
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by bobbreen</i>
<br />I think you will also find, if the unit took fire on the flank, even if there was no casualty, the odds get close to that 3.8% number -- which is not quite as unlucky as being on the wrong end of a 1.3% probability, but still pretty uncommon.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

The second instance, the unit was hit in the flank, yes. The first hit was frontal.

Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
3/2/VIII AoS
Image
Author:  laubster22 [ Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:26 am ]
Post subject: 
Every time you think you might be smart in these games, along comes someone like General Perrenod to remind you how puny your tactical brain power is...

Glad you are on our side and training new recruits, General![^]

Image
General Jeff Laub
Union Chief of the Army
ACWGC Cabinet Member
http://www.geocities.com/laubster22/UnionHQ/
Author:  mperrenod [ Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:28 am ]
Post subject: 
Well darn it, Dierk, you didn't give me all the information. [B)] With the flank shot, the second unit had a 4/6 chance of failing its morale check, rather than 2/6. So the odds of the rout were doubled, to 2.6%, and the chance of both units routing also doubled, though in rounding it comes closer to .03%, or 3 chances in 10,000.

Next you'll tell me one of the units was stacked with a leader. That would change things again. [:)]

Still, it's just arithmetic. [;)]

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah
Author:  laubster22 [ Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
Still glad it's you doing the math...

Image
General Jeff Laub
Union Chief of the Army
ACWGC Cabinet Member
http://www.geocities.com/laubster22/UnionHQ/
Author:  D.S. Walter [ Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:09 pm ]
Post subject: 
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by mperrenod</i>
Next you'll tell me one of the units was stacked with a leader.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">


I did. In my post Jun 02 2007 : 6:01:52 PM. [;)]

Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
3/2/VIII AoS
Image
Author:  mperrenod [ Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:36 am ]
Post subject: 
OK, I quit. I could revise the calculation, but it would be boring.[;)]

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah
Author:  laubster22 [ Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:34 am ]
Post subject: 
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">D.S. Walter Posted - Jun 05 2007 : 06:09:48 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by mperrenod
Next you'll tell me one of the units was stacked with a leader.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I did. In my post Jun 02 2007 : 6:01:52 PM.

Gen. Walter, USA
The Blue Blitz
3/2/VIII AoS

<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

I had a professor who would write RTFQ when grading tests and our answers wouldn't completly answer the question asked

Read
The
F
Question

You fill in the blank...[:p]

Image
General Jeff Laub
Union Chief of the Army
ACWGC Cabinet Member
http://www.geocities.com/laubster22/UnionHQ/
Author:  bobbreen [ Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:41 am ]
Post subject: 
'statistics are like a bikini:
what they reveal is suggestive,
but what they conceal is vital.'


Lt Gen Bob Breen
Commanding 5th Bde, 1st Div, XIX Corps, AoS
"Defenders of the Right"
Author:  laubster22 [ Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:52 am ]
Post subject: 
Never heard that one before, General Breen![:p][:0]

Image
General Jeff Laub
Union Chief of the Army
ACWGC Cabinet Member
http://www.geocities.com/laubster22/UnionHQ/
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