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How likely is this?
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Author:  D.S. Walter [ Fri Jun 01, 2007 8:30 am ]
Post subject:  How likely is this?

In my current Vicksburg game, I have twice seen a unit rout after taking a single ranged fire casualty. These were the only two units that routed so far, and both took but a "1" hit. How likely is this?

Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
3/2/VIII AoS
Image

Author:  KWhitehead [ Fri Jun 01, 2007 9:01 am ]
Post subject: 

I wouldn't plan a trip to Las Vegas anytime soon.[:D]

LG. Kennon Whitehead
Chatham Grays
III Corps, AoM (CSA)

Author:  laubster22 [ Fri Jun 01, 2007 9:57 am ]
Post subject: 

Dierk,

Sounds like in this case, if you didn't have bad luck, you'd have no luck at all...

That doesn't answer your question, however. Those probabilities are pretty small...

Image
General Jeff Laub
Union Chief of the Army
ACWGC Cabinet Member
http://www.geocities.com/laubster22/UnionHQ/

Author:  nelmsm [ Fri Jun 01, 2007 9:58 am ]
Post subject: 

....and here I thought that I was the only one that had that happen.

General Mark Nelms
6/3/IX/AoO
"Blackhawk Brigade"

Author:  krmiller [ Fri Jun 01, 2007 2:17 pm ]
Post subject: 

Probably about as often as I roll 3x1 for a morale check at my minatures game after a unit has suffered it's first loss.

Gen. Ken Miller

Image

Army of the Shenandoah

Author:  boilertech [ Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:14 pm ]
Post subject: 

Well if it only happens to the Boys in Blue then thats ok.

Respectfully,
Brig. Gen. Gery Bastiani
II Corps, 3rd Div. Tarheel Division
AotM CSA

"If there is a shell or bullet over there destined for us, it will find us" - General James Longstreet

"Hey Big Man, Let Me Hold a Dollar"

Author:  zinkyusa [ Sat Jun 02, 2007 4:46 am ]
Post subject: 

I don't have a problem with it if it's a green regiment. I read a story about when the new Michigan Regiment first joined the Iron Brigade. Thier first battle was at Fredericksburg. They were on the Federal Left not at Mary's Heights. Anyway as they started forward through some woods a cannonball took of the head of a single soldier. The regiment became uneasy and panic slowly began to rise from this single incident. The commanding officer thinking quickly stopped the advance briefly and put them all through the manual of arms several times. This calmed them down and they advanced again and distinguished themselves in their first battle. So although unlikely anything can happen in combat.

Lt. Gen. Ed Blackburn
I/I/VI/AoS
Image
"Forward Bucktails"

Author:  mperrenod [ Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:07 am ]
Post subject: 

Impossible to calculate, without knowing how many other times your units took casualties without routing, how many they took, the quality of the units, etc. It's a very complex bit of math.

There was a slightly less than 4% chance that each of those units would have to make a morale check following the hits. If they were each, hypothetically, C units, with low fatigue, not stacked w/ leaders, and not hit in the flank, the odds of rout would have been about 1% each.

You <i>knew</i>, Dierk, that I'd be the one to attempt to answer this literally.

Nice Fredricksburg story.

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah

Author:  mperrenod [ Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:13 am ]
Post subject: 

Dierk, you <i>knew</i> I'd be the one to attempt to answer literally.

The odds of each unit having to make a morale check one a single-casualty hit were just under 4%. Need more information to know the odds of a rout, but assuming they were each "C" units, not stacked with leaders, not disrupted, not hit in the flank, and low fatigue, the odds of each rout would be a little over 1%.

It's not possible to know if you've been lucky or unlucky overall, without information on how many other hits you've taken where units didn't rout. The more cases, the longer the calculation. An unusual pattern, though given the number of variables, <i>every</i> pattern of routing is unusual. Given 100 casualty events, it's highly unlikely that you'd ever see the same exact pattern occur twice.

Nice Fredricksburg story.

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah

Author:  mihalik [ Sat Jun 02, 2007 9:12 am ]
Post subject: 

There was an incident at Shiloh where the 6th Indiana battery routed when their commander got killed, leaving five of their six guns. But they might be considered a green unit. So much depends on context. I think if a lone regiment suddenly sees a whole corps coming at it, it might be tempted to rout even if it was veteran. But in the natural order of things, a veteran unit with veteran units on each side wouldn't rout on a single casualty, and shouldn't in the game.

MG Mike Mihalik
1/III/AoMiss/CSA

Author:  D.S. Walter [ Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:01 am ]
Post subject: 

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by zinkyusa</i>
<br />I don't have a problem with it if it's a green regiment.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

Right. I forgot to mention that in both cases it was a "C" quality unit stacked with a leader.

Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
3/2/VIII AoS
Image

Author:  D.S. Walter [ Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:04 am ]
Post subject: 

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by mperrenod</i>
<br />Dierk, you <i>knew</i> I'd be the one to attempt to answer literally.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

I was actually waiting for it. [:)]

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">It's not possible to know if you've been lucky or unlucky overall, without information on how many other hits you've taken where units didn't rout.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

Only these two units were hit (in successive turns). Both were "C" quality, both took only that one "1" hit, and both routed.

Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
3/2/VIII AoS
Image

Author:  mperrenod [ Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:53 am ]
Post subject: 

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Only these two units were hit (in successive turns). Both were "C" quality, both took only that one "1" hit, and both routed.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

In that case, the math goes like this:

Odds of each morale check: 1/(25+1) = 3.8%

Odds of each rout: 3.8% * 1/3 = 1.3%

Odds of first two units routing on one hit each: 1.3% squared = .02%.

2 out of 10,000. Pretty low probability. If you tried to factor in the odds that each of the first two hits would result in a single casualty, the odds would be exceedingly low, but there are so many variables involved, I don't think it worth the effort.

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah

Author:  mperrenod [ Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:58 am ]
Post subject: 

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Only these two units were hit (in successive turns). Both were "C" quality, both took only that one "1" hit, and both routed.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

In that case, the math goes like this:

Odds of each morale check: 1/(25+1) = 3.8%

Odds of each rout: 3.8% * 1/3 = 1.3%

Odds of first two units routing on one hit each: 1.3% squared = .02%.

2 out of 10,000. Pretty low probability. If you tried to factor in the odds that each of the first two hits would result in a single casualty, the odds would be exceedingly low, but there are so many variables involved, I don't think it worth the effort.

Gen. Matt Perrenod
<i>The Blue Ghost</i>
Commandant, United State Military Academy at West Point
5th Brigade, 2nd Division, VIII Corps, Army of the Shenandoah

Author:  KWhitehead [ Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:59 am ]
Post subject: 

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by mihalik</i>
<br />There was an incident at Shiloh where the 6th Indiana battery routed when their commander got killed, leaving five of their six guns. But they might be considered a green unit. So much depends on context. I think if a lone regiment suddenly sees a whole corps coming at it, it might be tempted to rout even if it was veteran. But in the natural order of things, a veteran unit with veteran units on each side wouldn't rout on a single casualty, and shouldn't in the game.

MG Mike Mihalik
1/III/AoMiss/CSA
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

A veteran unit wouldn't route they would just choose to redeploy to a less exposed position somewhere far to the rear.[:D]

LG. Kennon Whitehead
Chatham Grays
III Corps, AoM (CSA)

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