Hi, General,
Hope this doesn't stay a two-party conversation.
It is true that artillery had to be lucky to hit what it was aiming for at long range, but the rounds had to go somewhere, and often hit some other target. In "Culps Hill & Cemetery Hill" by Pfanz, it recounts how some of the rounds fired during the prep cannonade for Pickett's Charge, hit the troops around Culp's Hill, 1000 yds away from the target, and even blew up an ammo wagon there. I think range was a bigger problem than deviation though.
In "The Long Arm of Lee", Wise recounts the frustration of battery commanders at not being able to range their guns because the fuses were faulty. This was firing from Hazel Grove at the Union batteries at Fairview, but I'm sure it was universal, at least for the Confederates. Apparently, if the shell exploded as it was supposed to, it would help gunners calculate the proper range. Wise believed properly placed artillery was essential to breaking up charges.
In "Arms and Equipment of the Civil War", Coggins says there were 32 rounds in a Napoleon ammo chest, but doesn't say what the composition of the chest was. But Bigelow, the battery commander of the 9th Mass Bty at Gettysburg, said he fired 3 tons of ammo, including 92 rounds of cannister. That works out to 23 cannister rounds per gun, out of about 100 rds per gun. That would be about two caissons and a limbers' worth. That is about twice the cannister as you mentioned, but I'm sure different terrain led to different ammo configurations.
Actually, in reading about artillery fire, it seems caissons blew up more than guns during an artillery duel, but that is just an impression and not based on any particular research. But there is no allowance for this or for killing horses in the game. Also, no allowance for killing crew except all or none. In fact, Bigelow's Battery lost only 8 killed and 18 wounded even though they lost (temporarily) all 4 guns.
On the other hand, the 21st Miss, against which Bigelow's Battery largely expended their ammo, have losses listed at 18 killed and 85 wounded out of 424 men. And Bigelow's Battery wasn't the only resistance they met, although to be fair Bigelow's battery probably affected other formations as well as the 21st Miss. So the actual damage to the regiment wasn't that great, but the fire probably convinced some of the regiment to take a break, which is a phenomenon that I believe is probably underemphasized in battle accounts.
_________________ MG Mike Mihalik Forrest's Cavalry Corps AoWest/CSA
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