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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 7:30 pm 
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Gents:
I must tell you that you are under a misconception of what the raw numbers in weapons data in the pdt actually represent:
They are NOT percentages. They are raw numbers expressing the power of a certain weapon.


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:18 pm 
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Gentlemen <salute>

I redid my experiment using identical "C" quality forces and with the pdt modified to R 1 2.9 2 2.2 3 1.2 -1 with the following results for comparison:

Offensive fire at 125 yards without moving:
3900 troops fired for 141 hits - 3.62%
1628 troops returned fire for 32 hits - 1.97%

Offensive fire at 250 yards without moving:
3900 troops fired for 135 hits - 3.46%
2005 troops returned fire for 39 hits - 1.95%

Offensive fire at 375 yards without moving:
3900 troops fired for 72 hits - 1.85%
372 troops returned fire for 3 hits - 0.81%

Offensive fire at 125 yards after moving 1 hex:
2000 defenders detected movement and fired at 125 yards for 38 hits - 1.90%
3862 troops conducted offensive fire for 70 hits - 1.81%
1968 defenders returned fire for 20 hits - 1.02%
Total casualties: Attacker 58, Defender 70

Offensive fire at 125 yards after moving 2 hexes:
750 defenders detected movement and fired at 250 yards for 8 hits - 1.03%
1625 defenders detected movement and fired at 125 yards for 31 hits - 1.97%
3861 troops condected offensive fire for 73 hits - 1.89%
1569 defenders returned fire for 34 hits - 2.17%
Total casualties: Attacker 73, Defender 73

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General Neal Hebert
Edward C. Walthall Division (2nd aka "Gator Alley")
II Corps, Army of the West
CSA Cabinet Secretary


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:39 am 
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J. Ferry wrote:
Gents:
I must tell you that you are under a misconception of what the raw numbers in weapons data in the pdt actually represent:
They are NOT percentages. They are raw numbers expressing the power of a certain weapon.


To be exact (if one can) they are the designers best estimate of what an average regiment of 1000 men could do to an enemy regiment at various ranges over a 20 minute time period with that weapon.

The number adjust for hundreds of variables that the designer had no way to measure. The range attenuation adjust for not just distance but the changing tactical doctrine (do we really shoot and waste ammo at 400 yards type questions).

But the reality is the design pulls a number out of his posterior as an average base. Usually the closeest range number for the main weapon used (rifle) then adjusts everything else relative to that one. They adjust the base number up or down based on real play testing to try to recreate the typical casualties observed in the battle. All other numbers are estimated relative to this base number based on the designer's best guess as to how the various weapons worked relative to the base at different ranges and types.

If the designer is lucky enough to have a huge budget and lots of statistical data (like on modern weapons) his weapon model is extremely accurate. Some WW II games and later get this down to how much armor a weapon can penetrate based on the angle of hit. The Civil War however lacks this kind of information. Just try to find out the angle of spread of canister from a napoleon (which determines how many men it can hit between 0 and 300 yards. So weapons modeling varies all over the map when you look at different games and what the designer thought was most important to the simulation.

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General Kennon Whitehead
Chatham Grays
AoT II/1/3 (CSA)


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:58 am 
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The pdt Overland1 consists of values that have traditionally been in the games--and whosever posterior the numbers came out of, that individual has probably retired by now. Again, in efforts to reduce casualties, at one time I had a pdt with all weapons power cut in half, across the board. There was concern that these lighter numbers would not have enough power to influence the situation, so we did not go with it.


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:48 pm 
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General Hebert,

You are correct. I will be settling on 3 at 1 hex; 2.25 at 2 hexes; 1.5 at 3 hexes. I would like to see what results you get. The hit ratio should be around 1.3%.

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MG Robert Frost
Army of Cumberland


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:54 pm 
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General Hebert,

Actually, if you just fire without moving, then the ratio will be higher. In my calculations I assume that a given unit fires at 1/2 value 50% of the time and full value the remaining 50%.

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MG Robert Frost
Army of Cumberland


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:16 pm 
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One more thought: I believe the percentage values assigned to various terrain types are overstated. This is , of course, a compensating factor to the Weapons Effectiveness. For example, one of the highest hit percentages recorded (1.5%) occurred at the Battle of the Wilderness. In an era of line of sight weapons -- indirect artillery fire and prowling aircraft not a factor -- one needed, of course, to actually see the opponent. Both lines of necessity would need to be in proximity to do any damage. With reduced values for Weapons Effectiveness one needs to take a similar approach with terrain. I would give woods in Gettysburg a -20% value; Chickamauga or Shiloh might be -30%. Likewise, the game engine allows Breastworks to be built ANYWHERE. There is really no other way to handle this particular aspect, but the quality of such works would be dependent upon the availability of material. Works could run the gamut from minor to extensive. For a game with reduced weapons I am setting breastworks to be -15%. In the final analysis no one can say EXACTLY what these modifications should be. They are relative in protecting a defender -- or an attacker also -- from fire.

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MG Robert Frost
Army of Cumberland


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:22 pm 
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Gents--
if you want to look at data for the other small arms included in the game, I could look at converting a pdt or introducing a new one to incorporate that data.
Repeating rifle, breechloader, smoothbores, the Spencer. Have at it and let us know!
Spencer carbine is brand new, weapon "z" in the alphabet. The full length Spencer rifle is included in the repeating rifle category.


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:44 pm 
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Hi, John,

Speaking of PDTs, it looks like you've got about nine of them in the game. I haven't looked at them closely, but I have noticed a few things. In one PDT, napoleons fired at 20 at range 1. In another, they fired at 8.5 at range 1, while 3" rifles fired at 8. Maybe in that one or another one, 3" rifles fired at 8 at range 1 while 10 lb Parrotts fired at 12 at range 1. Can you shed some light on why the PDT values are so different?

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MG Mike Mihalik
Forrest's Cavalry Corps
AoWest/CSA


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:39 pm 
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I've run the "experiment" at a couple of pdt settings, however I still fail to understand the significant advantage the offensive firer seems to enjoy over the defensive fire when having not moved:

Offensive fire at 125 yards without moving:
3900 troops fired for 141 hits - 3.62%
1628 troops returned fire for 32 hits - 1.97%

Offensive fire at 250 yards without moving:
3900 troops fired for 135 hits - 3.46%
2005 troops returned fire for 39 hits - 1.95%

Offensive fire at 375 yards without moving:
3900 troops fired for 72 hits - 1.85%
372 troops returned fire for 3 hits - 0.81%

Neither side's troops moved before exchanging fire, however the offensive fire enjoys about a 2-1 advantage in effectiveness at all 3 ranges. Why is this? The effectiveness should at least be about equal, I would think.

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General Neal Hebert
Edward C. Walthall Division (2nd aka "Gator Alley")
II Corps, Army of the West
CSA Cabinet Secretary


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:57 pm 
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Neal,

A defender will never fire at more than 1/2 strength. That is one of the problems with the Turn-based AI. In Phase-based a defending unit will fire at full strength all things being equal.

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MG Robert Frost
Army of Cumberland


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:18 pm 
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Neal,

I do notice that the hit ratio at 1 hex is nearly half of your original tests and certainly closer to the historical norms and you are conducting optimal fire in all cases: No movement by the attacker and no defensive modifiers.

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MG Robert Frost
Army of Cumberland


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:25 pm 
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One more thing. The "attacker" fire is under your control and you are firing all units. Did the computer actually fire all the defending units? If not, then that would also explain part of the differential.

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MG Robert Frost
Army of Cumberland


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:29 pm 
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For Mihalik:
The main pdts are 1,2,5 and 9.
Pdts 1 and 9 have full firepower, as has been listed in all other titles.
Pdts 2 and 5 approximate half firepower.
In all the pdts The Napoleon, and to a lesser extent the 12 pdr howitzer should (and do) have a power far greater than the 3" or 10 pounder.
PDTs 1 and 9 have 3" and 10 pdr rifles at range 1 values of 8 and 12, respectively. They are the traditional values and I did not change them, although at point blank range there is not a nickel's worth of difference between them. Their 3" bore just could not accomodate the bucketload of bullets that a 5.82" Napoleon could.
The half firepower pdts were an attempt to reduce casualties. They are admittedly experimental, but they seem to kill our electronic soldiers just as efficiently as the others.


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 Post subject: Re: Effectiveness of the Rifle
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:48 pm 
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Thanks!

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MG Mike Mihalik
Forrest's Cavalry Corps
AoWest/CSA


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