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 Post subject: RATS!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:18 pm 
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Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2001 5:01 am
Posts: 564
Location: USA
Chris Newcomb and I are playing Gettysburg scenario 88. It is fun, a three day affair. I risked fighting his whole army on day one with less than half of mine, and got my behind kicked. Chris did a great job.

During the night I fled (not a retreat, a torrent rout) to Taneytown thinking I would fall back on the other half of my army. Well....

It's past noon on the second day. I should have II and VI Corps on the field, but they didn't show. Hanncock's corps being over an hour late. That seemed wierd to me, so I checked the scenario by looking at it in the editor. Guess what?

TYPOS! II, VI and V Corps have a 10% chance of arriving. They are not scheduled anywhere else, and all other reinforcements have 100% chances!! AHHHH!!!

So much for my plan, I guess I'll hope for a good die roll over the next two days, and try to keep away from Chris until they show up, if they do.

Hey Doug, might want to look at this one. It's great, but flawed.

(Hope Chris doesn't read this, or he'll roll over me!) hehehe...

MG Al "Ambushed" Amos, Commanding Officer
1st Div, I Corps, AoP, USA

http://albert-amos.blogspot.com/


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:38 pm 
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Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 5:41 am
Posts: 873
Location: Somewhere between D.C. and the battlefield
I think this is intentional. I have seen several scenarios where some reinforcements (both sides) have a 10% probability while others have 100%.

If it's any consolation to you, the chance that these guys will arrive within two hours (6 turns) is better than 50%. The chance that they'll be on the field within four hours (12 turns) is nearly 75%. And it's a lot better than 90% (that's a virtual certainty I'd say) they'll arrive within eight hours from the first entry.

<center>Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
[url="http://www.acwgc-usa.org/"]Image[/url]
<i>"... and keep moving on."</i>
Image
</center>


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 2:03 am 
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Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:32 am
Posts: 1638
Location: USA
I hate the scenarios that use 10% chance of major troops coming in. My luck runs such on these that they may never enter the map before the end of the game. It's still 10% chance on turn 150.[:D]

General Kennon Whitehead
Chatham Grays
2/3/IV AoM (CSA)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 2:20 am 
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Location: Somewhere between D.C. and the battlefield
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by KWhitehead</i>
It's still 10% chance on turn 150.[:D]
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

Yes, but the chance that they enter on none of the 150 turns up to turn 150 is so small it cannot be expressed except as "virtually nonexistent". In fact there's less than a 1% probability they don't enter within 40 turns.

<center>Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
[url="http://www.acwgc-usa.org/"]Image[/url]
<i>"... and keep moving on."</i>
Image
</center>


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:23 am 
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Personally, I like some variability. You can't bank on someone being where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there. 10% seems a bit harsh, but as DSW points out, they are very likely to arrive on Day 2....

Lt. Col. M. Cox
4th/2nd/<i>VI</i>
AoS
Image<i>'Once more unto the breach'</i>


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:09 am 
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When I get home I will look at the scenarios. I forget off the top of my head what variable parameters I used for any given scenario. While a typo is a possibility, I think I probably had a range of possible arrival times with that being on the low end. I'll let you know.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:59 am 
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Posts: 564
Location: USA
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by Mike Cox</i>
<br />Personally, I like some variability. You can't bank on someone being where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there. 10% seems a bit harsh, but as DSW points out, they are very likely to arrive on Day 2....

Lt. Col. M. Cox
4th/2nd/<i>VI</i>
AoS
Image<i>'Once more unto the breach'</i>

<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

Mike, I like variablity too, but I really needed those troops to be there, since I lost the half of the army I started with. hehehe...



MG Al "Ambushed" Amos, Commanding Officer
1st Div, I Corps, AoP, USA

http://albert-amos.blogspot.com/


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:02 am 
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Posts: 564
Location: USA
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by D.S. Walter</i>
<br /><blockquote id="quote"><font size="3" face="book antiqua" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by KWhitehead</i>
It's still 10% chance on turn 150.[:D]
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

Yes, but the chance that they enter on none of the 150 turns up to turn 150 is so small it cannot be expressed except as "virtually nonexistent". In fact there's less than a 1% probability they don't enter within 40 turns.

<center>Gen. Walter, USA
<i>The Blue Blitz</i>
[url="http://www.acwgc-usa.org/"]Image[/url]
<i>"... and keep moving on."</i>
Image
</center>


<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

Dierk, that's about the same percentage one of Kennon's email will get through to me!

MG Al "Ambushed" Amos, Commanding Officer
1st Div, I Corps, AoP, USA

http://albert-amos.blogspot.com/


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:25 pm 
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Location: USA
Or you can fall on your sword [:D] and finish the game early.

Respectfully,
Lt. Gen. Gery Bastiani
2/2/IV AotM CSA



"If there is a shell or bullet over there destined for us, it will find us" - General James Longstreet


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:29 pm 
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I did.

MG Al "Ambushed" Amos, Commanding Officer
1st Div, I Corps, AoP, USA

http://albert-amos.blogspot.com/


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2010 4:09 am 
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General Amos,

Sorry for the delay but I just got around to locating and checking my notes. Here's what I show for Scenario 88.

88. “Meeting engagement!â€


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2010 4:27 am 
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Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2001 5:01 am
Posts: 564
Location: USA
Doug,

OKay thanks for the reply. I appreciate the feedback, and have no qualms with your ideas or designs. In my particular instance, I 'counted' on day two reinforcements gambled on day one, lost and then 'lost' on day two. hehehe...

Probably a good interpretation of the situation would be that the Union reinforcements recieved word of the distaster of day one and decided to hole up somewhere off map till the situation became more stable. Good for them, bad for me. hehehe...

al

MG Al "Ambushed" Amos, Commanding Officer
1st Div, I Corps, AoP, USA

http://albert-amos.blogspot.com/


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